Fortune-telling is at its heydays, what with year-end and turbulent times ahead. Seers are polishing their crystal balls and getting down to the serious business of omening.
Being myself a clairvoyant, I deemed it fitting to share my foresight with readers of this blog, most of whom I know are harsh critics of my facetious, devil-may-care politics. For having put up with my unnerving writings for the past few weeks and in anticipation of what they would be enduring in the future, I offer them my predictions for 2006. Here goes.
Beirut isn’t going to be hit by a tsunami in 2006. That should be bad news for holders of Solidere shares. Here is why: a tidal wave would expand the city’s marina enormously, probably to cover most of Lebanon. Think of the increased income generated from the rental of the expanded mooring space. No tidal wave means no additional income from the marina, which in turn means Solidere share prices will languish at their current levels.
I predict high waves, though. They will splash against the corniche wall and spray passersby; yes, I see lots of irritated Beiruti passersby cursing the government. If the dateline on that crystal ball is accurate this should happen in the afternoon of January 17.
On a less serious wavelength, I predict the government is going to deliver a State budget in 2006. Now the Lebanese audience knows that this is not a foregone yearly occurrence in Lebanon, hence the value of my prediction. Fellow clairvoyants bruised their reputation last year when they predicted a State budget for 2005, because there wasn’t any.
As a matter of fact, three finance ministers attempted to work out a budget but failed. The first minister carbon-copied the 2004 budget and trumpeted the exercise as the mightiest achievement in economics since the discipline was invented; he kept the draft law in his drawer. Failing to recognize the document as a draft budget law, his successor ordered ministry staff to prepare something closer to his area of comprehension, so they adapted and simplified the 2004 budget and trumpeted the exercise as a fiscal masterpiece. Now the current minister found that draft too unoriginal to consider and went back to the 2004 budget for inspiration. As months went by he decided it was wiser to skip budgeting for 2005 and to apply the 2004 budget instead. The decision was trumpeted as an emanation from Solomonic wisdom.
Governance-by-hesitation is set to continue in Lebanon, but I clearly see a State budget for 2006, one that will be based on the 2004 budget.
